What are the odds Republicans keep the House in 2026?

According to Kalshi prediction markets, traders are actively pricing the odds of Republicans keeping the House in 2026. See live odds above.

What are the 2026 midterm election predictions?

Kalshi's real-money markets give the most accurate forecast for the 2026 midterms. See live odds above.

Who is favored to win the 2026 Senate races?

Kalshi aggregates trader sentiment across all 2026 Senate races to produce real-time probability estimates. Browse live odds above.

What is a prediction market for elections?

A prediction market lets traders buy and sell contracts based on election outcomes, producing real-time probability estimates that reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd.

2026 Primary & Midterm Election Odds & Predictions

All Midterm Primary Election Markets

Senate

Texas Republican Senate nominee?

Ken Paxton

1.50x

John Cornyn

2.73x

$11,983,037 vol5 markets

Primaries

Texas Senate matchup?

Talarico vs. Paxton

1.50x

Talarico vs. Cornyn

2.66x

$3,717,386 vol6 markets

Primaries

Maine Democratic Senate nominee?

Graham Platner

1.12x

Janet Mills

7.85x

$2,374,996 vol7 markets

House

KY-04 Republican nominee?

Thomas Massie

1.50x

Ed Gallrein

2.59x

$624,792 vol4 markets

Primaries

California Governor primary advancers? (Person)

Steve Hilton

1.62x

Chad Bianco

2.73x

$236,308 vol15 markets

Primaries

NY-12 Democratic nominee?

Micah Lasher

1.97x

Alex Bores

2.89x

$228,605 vol19 markets

Primaries

TX-33 Democratic nominee?

Colin Allred

1.36x

Julie Johnson

3.08x

$221,007 vol3 markets

Primaries

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?

Mallory McMorrow

1.60x

Abdul El-Sayed

3.29x

$216,051 vol9 markets

Primaries

How many House Republicans will lose their primary this year?

7 or more

2.73x

3.80x

$179,822 vol8 markets

Primaries

Illinois Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

Stratton, 6-9%

1.01x

Stratton, 3-6%

46.8x

$162,950 vol13 markets

Primaries

Texas Republican Attorney General nominee?

Mayes Middleton

1.28x

Chip Roy

3.80x

$133,633 vol4 markets

Primaries

Georgia Republican Senate nominee?

Mike Collins

1.19x

Derek Dooley

7.85x

$123,618 vol9 markets

Primaries

Kentucky Republican Senate nominee?

Andy Barr

1.48x

Daniel Cameron

4.51x

$119,466 vol7 markets

Primaries

Democratic Senate primaries combo

Yes

2.98x

1.42x

$111,073 vol1 market

Primaries

Louisiana Republican Senate nominee?

Julia Letlow

1.42x

John Fleming

5.56x

$107,399 vol8 markets

Primaries

Ohio Republican Senate nominee?

Jon Husted

1.01x

Mike DeWine

93.5x

$54,469 vol15 markets

Primaries

South Carolina Republican Senate nominee?

Lindsey Graham

1.18x

Paul Dans

10.4x

$88,069 vol4 markets

Primaries

Florida Republican Senate nominee?

Ashley Moody

1.09x

Ron DeSantis

11.7x

$84,085 vol10 markets

Primaries

NY-10 Democratic nominee?

Brad Lander

1.18x

Dan Goldman

4.98x

$76,687 vol5 markets

Primaries

Alabama Republican Senate nominee?

Barry Moore

1.20x

Jared Hudson

9.41x

$72,707 vol8 markets

Primaries

Oklahoma Republican Senate nominee?

Kevin Hern

1.04x

Ron Meinhardt

93.5x

$73,530 vol9 markets

Primaries

TX-18 Democratic nominee?

Christian Menefee

1.31x

Al Green

3.40x

$69,795 vol4 markets

Senate

Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory

Ken Paxton, 0-5%

3.40x

John Cornyn, 0-5%

4.51x

$56,152 vol10 markets

Primaries

Who will advance from the CA-11 primary?

Saikat Chakrabarti

1.20x

Connie Chan

3.80x

$60,122 vol8 markets

Primaries

Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee?

Peggy Flanagan

1.23x

Angie Craig

4.98x

$52,509 vol10 markets

Primaries

NY-04 Republican nominee?

Anthony D’Esposito

2.66x

Brian Miller

5.90x

$27,919 vol7 markets

Primaries

How many House Democrats will lose their primary this year?

7 or more

5.25x

5.56x

$51,365 vol8 markets

Primaries

California Governor primary advancers? (Party)

1 Democrat and 1 Republican

1.42x

2 Democrats

4.13x

$46,818 vol3 markets

Primaries

NY-07 Democratic nominee?

Claire Valdez

1.28x

Antonio Reynoso

3.66x

$48,037 vol9 markets

Primaries

New Hampshire Republican Senate nominee?

John E. Sununu

1.10x

Scott Brown

10.4x

$45,073 vol4 markets

Primaries

California Governor primary first place candidate?

Eric Swalwell

1.97x

Steve Hilton

2.59x

$37,313 vol8 markets

Primaries

Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?

Michele Tafoya

1.19x

Adam Schwarze

7.85x

$40,996 vol9 markets

Primaries

IL-09 Democratic primary margin of victory?

Daniel Biss, 0-4%

1.02x

Daniel Biss, 16%+

93.5x

$37,673 vol9 markets

Primaries

Ohio Democratic Senate nominee?

Sherrod Brown

1.01x

Tim Ryan

93.5x

$35,205 vol4 markets

Primaries

TX-32 Republican nominee?

Jace Yarbrough

1.01x

Ryan Binkley

46.8x

$35,008 vol9 markets

Primaries

Louisiana Republican Senate primary: margin of victory

Julia Letlow, 0-3%

5.56x

Julia Letlow, 3-6%

5.56x

$34,074 vol12 markets

Primaries

CA-40 primary advancers?

Joe Kerr

1.97x

Ken Calvert

1.55x

$33,346 vol6 markets

Primaries

NY-08 Democratic nominee?

Hakeem Jeffries

1.02x

Chi Ossé

31.2x

$32,396 vol3 markets

Primaries

Iowa Democratic Senate nominee?

Zach Wahls

1.79x

Josh Turek

1.97x

$29,444 vol4 markets

Primaries

Who will advance from the CA-22 primary?

Jasmeet Bains

2.24x

Randy Villegas

1.44x

$30,794 vol6 markets

Primaries

Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?

Ed Markey

1.14x

Seth Moulton

5.90x

$29,648 vol4 markets

Primaries

KY-05 Republican nominee?

Hal Rogers

1.13x

Kevin Smith

15.6x

$27,200 vol5 markets

Primaries

KY-01 Republican nominee?

James Comer

1.05x

David Sims

23.4x

$26,631 vol4 markets

Primaries

GA-14 Republican nominee?

Clayton Fuller

1.02x

Colton Moore

31.2x

$29,509 vol9 markets

Primaries

Republican Senate primaries combo

Yes

1.90x

$25,186 vol1 market

Primaries

TX-38 Republican nominee?

Jon Bonck

1.02x

Shelly DeZevallos

23.4x

$25,094 vol10 markets

Primaries

Florida Democratic Senate nominee?

Alexander Vindman

1.07x

Jared Moskowitz

10.4x

$24,360 vol8 markets

Primaries

Maine Republican Senate nominee?

Susan Collins

1.03x

Dan Smeriglio

18.8x

$23,506 vol2 markets

Primaries

PA-03 Democratic nominee?

Sharif Street

2.52x

Chris Rabb

2.66x

$22,574 vol7 markets

Primaries

North Carolina Democratic Senate primary: Roy Cooper vote percent?

90 - 94.99%

Less than 75%

93.5x

$22,815 vol6 markets

Politics

Politics

All Midterm Primary Election Markets

Texas Republican Senate nominee?

Texas Senate matchup?

Maine Democratic Senate nominee?

KY-04 Republican nominee?

California Governor primary advancers? (Person)

NY-12 Democratic nominee?

TX-33 Democratic nominee?

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?

How many House Republicans will lose their primary this year?

Illinois Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

Texas Republican Attorney General nominee?

Georgia Republican Senate nominee?

Kentucky Republican Senate nominee?

Democratic Senate primaries combo

Louisiana Republican Senate nominee?

Ohio Republican Senate nominee?

South Carolina Republican Senate nominee?

Florida Republican Senate nominee?

NY-10 Democratic nominee?

Alabama Republican Senate nominee?

Oklahoma Republican Senate nominee?

TX-18 Democratic nominee?

Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory

Who will advance from the CA-11 primary?

Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee?

NY-04 Republican nominee?

How many House Democrats will lose their primary this year?

California Governor primary advancers? (Party)

NY-07 Democratic nominee?

New Hampshire Republican Senate nominee?

California Governor primary first place candidate?

Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?

IL-09 Democratic primary margin of victory?

Ohio Democratic Senate nominee?

TX-32 Republican nominee?

Louisiana Republican Senate primary: margin of victory

CA-40 primary advancers?

NY-08 Democratic nominee?

Iowa Democratic Senate nominee?

Who will advance from the CA-22 primary?

Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?

KY-05 Republican nominee?

KY-01 Republican nominee?

GA-14 Republican nominee?

Republican Senate primaries combo

TX-38 Republican nominee?

Florida Democratic Senate nominee?

Maine Republican Senate nominee?

PA-03 Democratic nominee?

North Carolina Democratic Senate primary: Roy Cooper vote percent?