MARKETSPERPSLIVE150
Cash
Portfolio
Trending

Elections

PoliticsSportsCultureCryptoCommoditiesClimateEconomicsMentionsFinanceTech & Science
PredictLive150AccountSocial
Product
Kalshi ProPerpetual FuturesMarketsIncentive programInstitutionsAPI & developers
Company
AboutKalshi ResearchBlogCareersPolicy CenterBrand Kit
Help
Help CenterFAQFee scheduleTrading hoursRegulatoryTrust Center
© 2026 Kalshi Inc. · All rights reserved
PrivacyData Terms of ServiceTrading ProhibitionsFAQ for Finance Professionals
Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.

2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Democrats have a 64% chance to control the Senate

Forecasts · 33 days to Election
51DemocratsDem seats
RepublicansRep seats47
47 current Democratic seats53 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 11
DColorado98%DDelaware99%DGeorgia95%DIllinois98%DMassachusetts98%DNorth Carolina94%DNew Jersey98%DNew Mexico98%DOregon97%DRhode Island99%DVirginia98%

Likely Democratic

Total 2
DMinnesota88%DNew Hampshire87%

Lean Democratic

Total 4
DAlaska69%DMichigan72%DOhio63%DTexas66%

Toss-up

Total 2Dem 1Rep 1
RIowa60%DMaine58%

Lean Republican

Total 2
RKansas70%RNebraska73%

Likely Republican

Total 1
RSouth Carolina88%

Safe Republican

Total 13
RAlabama98%RArkansas93%RFlorida90%RIdaho92%RKentucky95%RLouisiana91%RMississippi90%RMontana91%ROklahoma97%RSouth Dakota90%RTennessee98%RWest Virginia97%RWyoming97%

More markets

Texas
D
James TalaricoTalarico
R
Ken PaxtonPaxton
64%
36%
Maine
D
Troy JacksonJackson
R
Susan CollinsCollins*
58%
42%
Ohio
D
Sherrod BrownBrown
R
Jon HustedHusted*
61%
39%
Michigan
D
Abdul El-SayedEl-Sayed
R
Mike RogersRogers
71%
29%
Iowa
D
Josh TurekTurek
R
Ashley HinsonHinson
41%
59%
North Carolina
D
Roy CooperCooper
R
Michael WhatleyWhatley
94%
6%
Alaska
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
69%
31%
Kansas
D
Adam HamiltonHamilton
R
Roger MarshallMarshall*
31%
69%
Nebraska
I
Dan OsbornOsborn
R
Pete RickettsRicketts*
27%
73%
South Carolina
D
Annie AndrewsAndrews
R
Darline GrahamGraham
13%
87%
New Hampshire
D
Chris PappasPappas
R
John E. SununuSununu
86%
14%
Georgia
D
Jon OssoffOssoff*
R
Mike CollinsCollins
96%
4%
Minnesota
D
Peggy FlanaganFlanagan
R
Michele TafoyaTafoya
87%
13%
Florida
D
Angie NixonNixon
R
Ashley MoodyMoody*
9%
91%
Montana
I
Seth BodnarBodnar
R
Kurt AlmeAlme
8%
92%
Idaho
I
Todd AchillesAchilles
R
Jim RischRisch*
8%
92%
Mississippi
D
Scott ColomColom
R
Cindy Hyde-SmithHyde-Smith*
10%
90%
South Dakota
I
Brian BengsBengs
R
Mike RoundsRounds*
11%
89%
Arkansas
D
Hallie ShoffnerShoffner
R
Tom CottonCotton*
7%
93%
Kentucky
D
Charles BookerBooker
R
Andy BarrBarr
4%
96%
1–5 of 35
Showing 5 of 35

Combos

Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Above 52
52
$3,502,871 vol10 markets
Senate

How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

47
48
$1,266,990 vol15 markets
Senate

Maine-Texas Senate Combo

James Talarico and Troy Jackson
Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
$1,059,945 vol6 markets
Senate

Maine Senate Exact Outcome

Democratic party wins
Republican party wins
$712,105 vol2 markets
Senate

Closest Senate race this year?

Texas
Texas
Texas
Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
$642,906 vol20 markets
Senate

Will Democrats sweep the “core four” Senate races?

Yes
No
$362,202 vol1 market
Senate

Texas Senate: Exact outcome

Talarico defeats Paxton
Paxton defeats Talarico
$355,895 vol2 markets
Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)

Below 53
53
$279,101 vol7 markets
Senate

How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 0
Exactly 2
$97,492 vol6 markets
Senate

Manchin Senate combo: Rogers & Collins

Both lose
Rogers loses, Collins wins
$70,429 vol4 markets
141 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$97,767,007 vol
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
1.65x
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
2.29x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$1,188,781 vol
Yes
2.81x
No
1.46x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$806,225 vol
Yes
1.14x
No
6.74x
Attorney General

Minnesota Attorney General winner?

$34,188 vol
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
1.26x
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
3.96x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$604,680 vol
Yes
1.83x
No
1.97x
Other US Elections

Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

$119,017 vol
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
1.90x
Bo French
Bo French
Bo French
1.93x
Senate

Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Blexas)

$24,008 vol
Yes
1.46x
No
2.66x
US Elections

California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (Yes)

$14,957 vol
Yes, ≥1%
2.59x
Yes, ≥4%
3.66x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Idaho?

$26,592 vol
Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act
1.97x
Drug Legalization Authority Amendment
23.4x
Senate

Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?

$16,773 vol
Yes
4.13x
No
1.25x
US Elections

Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?

$20,246 vol
Yes
2.98x
No
1.38x
Referendums

Which abortion-related measures will pass this year?

$12,766 vol
Missouri Amendment 3
1.62x
Virginia Question 1
1.03x
Attorney General

Nevada Attorney General winner?

$4,219 vol
Nicole Jeanette Cannizzaro
Nicole Jeanette Cannizzaro
Nicole Jeanette Cannizzaro
1.25x
Adriana Guzmán Fralick
Adriana Guzmán Fralick
Adriana Guzmán Fralick
4.51x
Attorney General

Georgia Attorney General winner?

$3,127 vol
Tanya Miller
Tanya Miller
Tanya Miller
1.93x
Brian Strickland
Brian Strickland
Brian Strickland
1.90x
Referendums

Will Kansas vote to require U.S. citizenship to vote?

$6,423 vol
Yes
1.07x
No
10.4x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?

$22,267 vol
Amendment 82
1.90x
Amendment 87
1.86x
Attorney General

Iowa Attorney General winner?

$24,296 vol
Brenna Bird
Brenna Bird
Brenna Bird
1.44x
Nate Willems
Nate Willems
Nate Willems
2.81x
Attorney General

New York Attorney General winner?

$19,898 vol
Letitia James
Letitia James
Letitia James
1.07x
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
15.6x
Secretary of State

Arizona Secretary of State winner?

$4,620 vol
Adrian Fontes
Adrian Fontes
Adrian Fontes
1.20x
Alexander Kolodin
Alexander Kolodin
Alexander Kolodin
4.31x
Attorney General

Florida Attorney General winner?

$2,005 vol
James Uthmeier
James Uthmeier
James Uthmeier
1.22x
José Javier Rodriguez
José Javier Rodriguez
José Javier Rodriguez
5.56x
Attorney General

Michigan Attorney General winner?

$7,875 vol
Eli Savit
Eli Savit
Eli Savit
1.33x
Doug Lloyd
Doug Lloyd
Doug Lloyd
3.66x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Arkansas?

$44,606 vol
Economic Development Districts Amendment
1.25x
Water Infrastructure Bond Question
1.08x
Attorney General

Arizona Attorney General winner?

$14,133 vol
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
1.23x
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
4.73x
Other US Elections

North Carolina State Senate winner?

$1,875 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.05x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
9.41x